Article 5: Critical Turns and other musings

November has been a really busy month for me, and I haven’t had the time to work up the third full “X-wing basics” article.  I have been thinking about a couple of related topics the last couple of weeks, though, and thought I’d write about that in the meantime.  This is part general theory, part squad review, part random musing.  I hope it’s useful to you readers.

The Critical Turn

Part 1:  What is a Critical Turn?

Many games of X-wing have a critical turn.  It’s not always obvious (although it can be), but it’s a turn where the decisions that are made commit a squad to a course of action for several subsequent turns, or even the rest of the game.  Recognizing a critical turn during the planning phase is essential, because that’s where a player’s decisions matter the most (Supernatural Reflexes, Advanced Sensors, etc. notwithstanding, see Article 1 for an in-depth look at this).  A turn could be critical because it locks a player into a set of maneuvers due to obstacle or board edge constraints.  A turn could also be critical because it exposes key ships to damage, and that damage forces different strategies to be used to keep key ships alive as long as possible.  A turn could also be critical because it puts opposing ships into a position where they can easily pursue and have quality shots for several subsequent turns. 

In short, a critical turn is a turn where a few decisions have consequences with far more significance than those types of decisions at other points in the game.  For example, the first turn dial selection is rarely critical.  It is often important, but barring a really terrible decision, it does not usually define the game.  In contrast, dial selection in the planning phase that leads to the first engagement is frequently critical, as it does much to define how the first set of exchanges plays out.

Critical turns often feel like gambles.  The opposing squad often has two or more obvious options (for example, go fast or go slow), and a player must decide which option to counter, typically with incomplete information.  This drives players to design and use squads that minimize critical turns.  There are two principle ways to minimize critical turns: 

1.) Delay the decision point to gain more information before making the decision for the critical turn (high Initiative with Supernatural Reflexes/Advanced Sensors), and

2.)  Maximizing defenses so that poorer decisions have reduced impact. 

These mitigating strategies serve to convert one big decision into many smaller decisions.  This is a worthwhile goal to aim for if you think you generally make a lot of good decisions.  It lets you stack up good decisions, but not worry too much if one is occasionally wrong.  Let’s look at the hall of fame power lists from 1.0 X-wing for examples of squads minimizing critical turns.

Dengaroo:

             Repositioning high PS Turret:  Not required to commit to a line of attack, so Dengar rarely had any moves where he couldn’t respond in some way after dials were set and revealed.  (category 1)

             Countermeasures/Glitterstim:  Beyond the every-turn Dengaroo nonsense, these cards gave him a “get out of jail free” card if the player managed to still get him in a terrible position.  (category 2)

            

 Miranda + whatever:

             Repositioning high PS Turret:  Never had to commit to an attack line except for occasional ordnance salvos.  (category 1)

             High Defense + Regeneration:  Poor play that got her damaged was mitigated by automatic defenses and steady regeneration.  Bomb dropping added to the defense because effective pursuit was complicated by the need to avoid bomb damage, while her regeneration capabilities kept going.  (category 2)

Palp Defenders:

             Massive defenses and solid HP counts:  Allowed many attacks to simply have no effect.  These defenses were largely dial agnostic as well (blocking or overlapping didn’t really matter to the x7 title and Palpatine).  (category 2, but so much category 2)

There have emerged lists in 2.0 that also attempt to reduce critical turns.  Boba Fett (particularly with Han Gunner) uses highly modified dice to limit incoming damage in situations that would see other ships off the board.  Ships with Supernatural Reflexes or Advanced Sensors allow powerful centerpiece ships so much movement flexibility that very few decisions lock them into a course of action for more than a turn. 

At the other end of the spectrum are lists that attempt to force critical turns.  The most common way you see this done is through Alpha Strike lists or strong jousting lists.  They attempt to set up early critical turns where the opponent must execute successfully or take too much damage on early turns to recover in the time allotted.  Generally speaking, lists that have avoided critical turns have done better than lists that force critical turns, because lists that force critical turns allow more counter-play and can fall victim to their own critical turns, such as when alpha strike lists don’t get their alpha strike off.  More successful, however, are squads that force critical turns in more unexpected ways.  ASLAM K-wings were able to use Cluster or Proximity Mines to attack ships before those ships even revealed a dial.  This ability both forced a critical turn against high defense ships that typically did a good job avoiding critical turns, and it moved the critical turn for the victims up one turn compared to where it would normally be.  The critical turn was no longer the planning phase just before the first engagement, it was the planning phase the turn before that.  This ability short-circuited the normal way of thinking about the game, and while players partially adapted, the squad was problematic until ASLAM was eventually nerfed.

Part 2:  List analysis of Saber Squadron

I started thinking about this idea of critical turns because I have been flying a really interesting squad lately.  Interesting to me, at least.  The squad in question is 4 Saber Squadron Aces with Crack Shot and Gideon Hask with Crack Shot, for a 195 point total cost.  The squad forsakes a lot of defense for great maneuverability, great offense, and high Initiative for a 5-ship list.  Out of a dozen or so games, I’ve only lost once, and some of the wins were against matchups that I felt were decidedly not in my favor.  Furthermore the wins have rarely been close, often having 4 ships on the table when the game is over (and it’s always over before time is called).  This is not to say I’m a great player.  I’m a good player, but the results with this squad have been a marked improvement from my record in both 1.0 and 2.0 versions of X-wing.  Consequently, I’ve really started to drill down and try to figure out why this squad is acting so differently from most of the squads I’ve played. 

On paper, it’s rather like an alpha strike squad.  5x3 dice attacks, some likely triggering Crack Shot do quite a bit of damage.  Yes, there’s technically 4x3 dice attacks + 2 dice attack that’s sometimes 3 dice, but in practice it’s very close to 5x3 dice attacks.  There is also a swarm element to it, but it doesn’t have the intrinsic toughness of swarms as it’s only 5 hulls instead of 6-8.  Neither alpha strike, or swarm, or even the combination is especially notable, however.  There has been no shortage of squads that have done that kind of thing in the history of the game.  The aspect that really sets it apart, in my experience, is the speed and maneuverability of the squad. 

Typically, alpha strike and heavy jousting squads have centered on hulls that are not very maneuverable.  In 2.0, these squads are things like TIE Bombers (Barrage with Jonus or Proton Torp with Jendon), Rebel Proton Torpedoes, and TIE Fighter swarms.  Something all of these squads have in common is that they don’t have very flexible positioning.  They’re either made up of low maneuverability ships or locked into Range 1 of support ships for maximum offensive power.  This makes determining the squad’s future location a relatively straightforward process, and it makes avoiding the worst of the attacking power a manageable thing for ships that rely on positioning to win. 

With a highly maneuverable squad such as the Sabers, however, their position from turn to turn is not easy to predict.  They have a huge range of final position, from a 5-straight + boost forward, to a 1-hard+barrel roll backwards.  They can easily turn to bring most of their guns against flankers, they can range control against ordnance, and they can move to avoid bombs.  They can block extremely effectively.  With 3 dice + the occasional Crack Shot trigger, even one is enough to do significant damage to opposing ships.  Perhaps most significantly, the speed lets them converge from widely deployed positions onto one of many ending positions, and the opponent cannot know what area of the board will be focused on.

This brings me back to the discussion of critical turns.  There is an element of the ASLAM K-wings to this squad.  The Sabers move so quickly that by the planning phase of the engagement turn it is too late to avoid them.  Consequently, the squad is both forcing critical turns by being a high-firepower alpha strike list, and it’s moving the critical turn up a turn because of the terrific speed.  That maneuverability also allows it to increase the frequency of critical turns.  Unlike a swarm wheeling to one of a few places or losing power due to breaking formation, the individually dangerous Sabers can break up and continue to put pressure on multiple ships, and then easily reform against a single ship the next turn.  The price you pay for the squad is the low hit point count, so it’s far from an easy squad to play, but it’s been the most interesting and enjoyable squad I’ve played in 2.0 so far.

Thanks for reading.